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Minister of National Defense Suh Wook (left) and US Defense Secretary Mark Esper (right) discuss joint security issues at the 52nd South Korea-US Security Consultative Meeting at the Pentagon on Oct. 14. (AP/Yonhap News)

South Korean Minister of National Defense Suh Wook and US Defense Secretary Mark Esper discussed the wartime operational control (OPCON) transfer issue at the 52nd South Korea-US Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) on Oct. 14, but were unable to dispel uncertainties surrounding the schedule for an early handover. The situation suggests the seeds of discord between the two sides surrounding the swift transfer of OPCON have yet to fully disappear.

According to a joint statement released after Suh and Esper’s meeting, “The two leaders reaffirmed that the conditions stated in the mutually agreed [Conditions-based Operational Control Transition Plan] must be fully met before the wartime OPCON is transitioned to the [Future Combined Forces Command].”

In 2014, South Korea and the US agreed that the conditions South Korea must meet before the OPCON transfer are key military capabilities for leading joint defense, the ability to respond to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, and the security environment on the Korean Peninsula and in the surrounding region. The statement reiterated the two sides’ basic position that these conditions must be met before the handover can take place per South Korea’s request.

South Korea’s military has been pushing for an early OPCON transfer. Following the first phase of assessment (initial operational capability, IOC) of the Future Combined Forces Command last year, the two countries were supposed to move ahead with the second phase (full operational capability, FOC) this year and the third phase (full mission capability, FMC) next year.

But that schedule was interrupted when the US and South Korea’s joint exercise in February was canceled and their joint exercise in August was scaled back because of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, South Korea wanted the downsized joint exercise to focus on capability assessment to ensure that the early timeline for OPCON transfer was not disrupted. But the Americans countered that the exercise should focus on strengthening joint defense readiness, which pushed the assessment timeline back until next year or beyond.

In their joint statement, the two officials “acknowledged that great progress had been made toward meeting the conditions for wartime OPCON transition,” while mentioning the activities of the Special Permanent Military Committee (SPMC), which was established to assess whether OPCON conditions have been met. But South Korea and the US reportedly do not see eye to eye on that assessment.

“South Korea and the US carried out a joint assessment at the SPMC last year. Our assessment is that the South Korean military has mostly acquired the key military capabilities, which is one of the conditions for the OPCON transfer, but in the end, South Korea and the US need to be on the same page,” said Won In-choul, chair of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, during the parliamentary audit on Oct. 8. Won’s comments hint that South Korea and the US have conflicting assessments.

In his introductory remarks before the meeting, Suh said, “We will also work together to thoroughly prepare for a combined defense posture under the South Korean military’s leadership by fulfilling the conditions as early as possible.” But Esper was more cautious, noting that “fully meeting all the conditions for the transition of operational control to the Republic of Korea commander will take time.”

“It’s not so much that there’s a disagreement as that the two sides haven’t exactly reached a conclusion and have decided to continue the discussion,” explained an official with South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense (MND).

Esper seemed determined to pressure South Korea to increase its financial contribution to the cost of stationing US troops on the Korean Peninsula. “We must find more equitable means of sharing the costs of our common defense,” Esper said. “The United States urges the Republic of Korea, as well as NATO and other allies, to contribute more to our collective security.”

Esper added that he hoped everyone would agree about the need to reach an agreement on the cost-sharing burden as quickly as possible to maintain the stability of the US troop presence in Korea.

The US and South Korea’s cost-sharing negotiations are currently on hold because of a sharp disagreement between the two sides. The US has reportedly reduced its initial request for a 400% increase down to 50%, but that’s still quite far from South Korea’s offer of a 13% increase.

In their joint statement, Suh and Esper also “committed to make a long-term plan to establish the conditions for the stable stationing of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery at Camp Carroll” in Seongju. That appears to lay out plans for the construction of a permanent THAAD base in Seongju, following an environmental impact assessment that’s currently underway. Such a plan is likely to face pushback from China, which opposes the THAAD deployment.

The two officials’ statement omits language about maintaining USFK at its current level, language that the two countries had included in last year’s security consultative meeting. When asked whether the omission leaves open the possibility of downsizing the American garrison, a senior MND official advised against reading too much into it. “The idea is to be flexible about several areas of operations. But the joint statement promises to maintain defense readiness,” the official said.

Suh and Esper abruptly called off a press conference they’d planned to hold after their meeting on Wednesday. Though there was speculation that the cancellation was connected with the two sides’ disagreement about items on their agenda, including the OPCON transfer, a MND official offered a different explanation. “The day before, Secretary Esper asked for the press conference to be canceled because this is a sensitive time given the ongoing presidential election in the US, and we agreed to that,” the official said.

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer, and Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

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