The president of the US Council on Foreign Relations said it may be better to negotiate with North Korea about nuclear arms reduction in exchange for sanctions relief rather than pushing for complete denuclearization. This pragmatic approach is being raised as the task of North Korea’s denuclearization grows more daunting.
In an article titled “The New Nuclear Era” that was published on the organization’s website on Wednesday, Richard Haass suggested that “we are on the cusp of a new era of expanding nuclear arsenals, a more prominent role for them in geopolitics, and efforts by more countries to acquire them.”
Haass observed that North Korea, which “remains secure as it continues to expand its nuclear arsenal,” is unlikely to willingly give up its weapons.
“Full denuclearization should remain a goal, but in the meantime the US, South Korea, and Japan need to consider some form of arms-control proposal that would limit North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and missile systems in exchange for a reduction of sanctions,” he said.
“The US should also maintain its close alliance with both South Korea and Japan vis-à-vis not just North Korea, but also China. Failure to do so would most likely lead both countries to reconsider their renunciation of nuclear weapons.”
Haass asserted that the war in Ukraine was only reinforcing North Korea’s refusal to give up its nuclear weapons and making other countries see the appeal of nuclear armament.
“Ukraine surrendered the nuclear weapons that remained on its territory in exchange for security assurances. Since then, Russia has invaded twice,” Haass observed, which he said may convince others that nuclear weapons are key to national security.
The fact that Russian threats about using nuclear weapons have apparently prevented the US from making a direct military intervention in Ukraine is also weakening the “nuclear taboo,” Haass said.
Since North Korea has ignored the US’ proposal for “dialogue without preconditions” and continues to upgrade its nuclear weapons and missiles, civilian experts in the US are starting to talk about switching to a more “realistic” approach. Another reason that Haass’ proposal carries weight is that the Council on Foreign Relations, the organization he has led, counts political, government and academic elites among its members.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, published an essay titled “It’s Time to Accept That North Korea Has Nuclear Weapons” in the New York Times on Oct. 13. In it, Lewis called for recognizing North Korea as a nuclear weapons state and improving relations to lower tensions.
By Lee Bon-young, Washington correspondent
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