West Sea naval clash expected to affect North Korea-U.S. bilateral dialogue

Posted on : 2009-11-11 12:43 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
While conservatives want to use it to hinder N. Korea-U.S. dialogue, analysts say Lee administration could appropriately minimize its effects
 Nov. 10.
Nov. 10.

The latest West Sea naval engagement, an armed clash that comes at a time when the situation on the Korean Peninsula is on the verge of moving towards dialogue, is expected to play a harmful role for the time being. In the short-term, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth is expected to visit North Korea sometime between late Nov. and early Dec. U.S. President Barack Obama will begin his Asia tour on Thursday. In light of this, experts say the scope and depth of the repercussions from the battle ultimately depend on the ability of North Korean and South Korean authorities to manage the situation.

How the North Korean and South Korean governments define the nature of the incident is expected to be the core factor determining its fallout. 

It appears that if it is revealed that North Korea “intentionally” provoked the clash or if the South Korean government, in a situation in which the actual truth is murky, blames North Korea for an intentional provocation, inter-Korean relations are expected to worsen.

Over the second half of the year, North Korea has made strong conciliatory gestures with the goal of simultaneously improving North Korea-U.S. and inter-Korean ties, but the Lee administration has not changed its hardline tenor towards North Korea. It has consistently feigned ignorance about the restart of the Mt. Kumgang and Kaesong tourism projects, and it responded to North Korea’s request for food aid by sending only 10,000 tons of corn. There were also reportedly secret contacts for an inter-Korean summit, but no progress was made due to the Lee administration’s demand that North Korea denuclearize first.

In this situation, with inter-Korean relations stagnant due to the South Korea’s passive attitude, if hard-line conservative opinion increases and the Lee administration responds in a hardline fashion, things could spin out of control. Kim Yeon-cheol, head of the Hankyoreh Peace Research Institute, says that if conservative forces push the stance that the clash was an intentional act by North Korea or claim a South Korean navy victory in order to drive up inter-Korean tensions or play with opinion by claiming that they, unlike previous administrations acted according to principle, North Korea will also have no choice but to respond in a hardline fashion.

Thus far, the postures of the North Korean and South Korean authorities have been ones of caution. A Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea or Blue House) official appeared as if he did not want the fallout from the clash to spread, and says while the incident appears to have been an intentional preemptive response by the North Korean navy, it does not appear to have been premeditated. North Korea also demanded through a North Korean military headquarters report Tuesday afternoon that South Korea apologize and take measures to prevent a recurrence, but did not mention any specific follow-up response.

Observers say if South Korean authorities concentrate on an appropriate way to manage the situation, the clash is not expected to have a sizable or direct impact on Bosworth’s trip to Pyongyang. Former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun says it would be difficult for the U.S. government, which has been conscious of domestic opinion and has taken a careful approach to inter-Korean dialogue, to make a political U-turn after making a public declaration of Bosworth’s visit to North Korea.

Nevertheless, it is also a fact that among some quarters of the South Korean government and conservative forces that there is a significant tendency to view North Korea-U.S. dialogue with unease. If, like during the Kim Young-sam administration, the Lee administration and conservative forces use the clash as a tool to hinder North Korea-U.S. dialogue from an ideological perspective of inter-Korean confrontation, it could have a negative influence on North Korea-U.S. dialogue. If this happens, one cannot rule out the possibility that the U.S., which has stressed harmony with its allies, might fall into a difficult situation.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

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