hankyoreh

director of the Korean People's Army General Political Bureau

By Seok Jin-hwan, Blue House correspondent

With North and South Korea agreeing to resume high-level talks following the visit of senior North Korean officials to Seoul last weekend, the next question is what approach President Park Geun-hye and the Blue House will adopt as they respond to this unusual opportunity for dialogue.

At the Blue House, there is hope that progress can be made on the Trust-building Process for the Korean Peninsula and “Unification as Jackpot,” which have long been stalled. But the Blue House is acting cautiously, with the president declining to issue any official statement about the North Korean delegation’s visit.

“We need to avoid jumping to conclusions with inter-Korean relations. The view inside the Blue House based on past experience is that it is important to calmly determine what the real intentions of the North Koreans are,” an official at the Blue House said.

In line with this, the Blue House has been devoting its energy to having the National Security Office and associated ministries analyze the reasons and motivations behind the North Korean senior officials’ visit to South Korea. Blue House Chief of Staff Kim Ki-choon also convened a meeting of senior secretaries on Sunday afternoon to review trends in public opinion and to discuss what should be done in the future.

Examining the Blue House’s response to the announcement of the North Korean delegation’s visit, it can be inferred that the Blue House has been relatively proactive in using the visit as an opportunity to improve inter-Korean relations, which have been at a standstill for the past eight months.

One good example is how the Blue House did not get hung up on the fact that the closing ceremony of the Asian Games was a sports event and promptly assigned Kim Kwan-jin as the counterpart for Hwang Pyong-so. This was an appropriate choice, since Hwang is the director of the General Politburo of the North Korean People’s Army, while Kim, as National Security Chief, coordinates diplomacy and security for South Korea.

In addition, the fact that Kim Gyu-hyun, first deputy director of National Security, attended the luncheon with Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae also suggests that the Blue House means to play a central role in advancing inter-Korean relations. Kim was the chief envoy to the first round of high-level inter-Korean talks that took place in February. The fact that the South Korean delegation indicated it will arrange a meeting with President Park can also be understood in the same context.

Analysts say that the Blue House’s proactive attitude was also propelled by the long-lasting stalemate in inter-Korean relations and the increasing criticism Park has faced about her North Korean policy.

In particular, Park’s direct reference to North Korea’s human rights issues during her keynote address before the UN General Assembly in September elicited criticism from North Korea as well as expressions of concern from the ruling Saenuri Party (NFP) and South Korean conservative media about relations with the North. Talk about revoking the May 24 sanctions against North Korea has also been circulating in the Saenuri Party, the government, and the business world.

The Blue House’s actions seem to have been prompted by the awareness that this may be the best chance to seize the initiative in inter-Korean relations for the indefinite future.

Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether the second round of high-level talks, which are scheduled to take place at the end of October, will lead to significant results. There is sure to be friction between President Park’s Dresden Declaration, which seeks to build trust in non-political areas such as the people’s livelihood, the environment, and cultural exchange; North Korea’s wish for the May 24 measures to be lifted and resuming tours to Mt. Keumgang; and the demands of conservative forces in South Korea that North Korea must take responsibility for the sinking of the 2010 Cheonan warship and the shooting of a tourist at Mt. Keumgang in 2008.

Then there is the fact that President Park has herself prevented inter-Korean relations from improving by standing on principle and placing conditions on dialogue with the North. It is uncertain whether Park can let go of her habit of insisting on principles and instead take a more flexible approach.

Another perspective at the Blue House is that these high-ranking talks are a chance to assess the ability of the current officials in charge of diplomacy and security. The situation is different from the past year and a half, when diplomacy and security were in the hands of National Intelligence Service Director Nam Jae-joon, National Security Chief Kim Jang-soo, and Defense Minister Kim Kwang-jin. These figures were all graduates of the military academy and hardliners on the issue of North Korea.

It will be interesting to see what advice Park receives from more recent appointees such as National Intelligence Service Director Lee Byeong-gi and National Security Office Vice Director Kim Gyu-hyun, who represent a diplomatic approach that puts more weight on dialogue.