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An image of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un riding a steed with military leaders up Mt. Baektu published by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Dec. 4. (Yonhap News)

After climbing to Cheonji, the crater lake at the top of Mt. Baektu, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un invoked the “indomitable mental power of self-reliance” and placed new emphasis on “the line for self-prosperity.” North Korea also said that important matters would be discussed and decided during the 5th Plenum of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), which will be held in late December. In effect, Kim has provided advance notice of an “important decision” that will alter the line he has taken in negotiations with the US over the past two years, since 2018.

Amid the countdown to North Korea’s end-of-the-year deadline for finding a “new path” if the US holds to “sanctions and pressure” without offering “new calculations,” Kim appears to be accelerating the internal adjustments needed to move down that “new path.”

North Korea announced that it would “convene the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the WPK in the latter part of December in order to discuss and decide on crucial issues in line with the needs of the development of the Korean revolution and the changed situation at home and abroad.” The details of the “new path” to be chosen by North Korea will no doubt be elaborated during that plenum and Kim’s 2020 New Year’s address, but some general deductions can be made about the path from Kim’s recent words and actions.

An image of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in front of Cheonji, the crater lake at the top of Mt. Baektu, published by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Dec. 4. (Yonhap News)

“New path” to be elaborated during this month’s plenum and Kim’s 2020 New Year’s address

This month, Kim’s actions roughly fall into two categories. His first focus has been on advertising results in the area of public livelihood, through attending the ribbon-cutting ceremony for the second phase of construction at Samjiyon County and a similar ceremony at the Jungphyong Vegetable Greenhouse Farm and Tree Nursery in Kyongsong County, North Hamgyong Province. His second focus has been on adjusting his US policy through his ascent to Cheonji and his tour of revolutionary battlefields on Mt. Baektu, which occurred at an unspecified time.

The aspect that’s receiving the most attention is Kim’s “Mt. Baektu plan,” since this is a major factor in how Korean Peninsula affairs will play out. One important point is Kim’s reaffirmation of the “line of self-prosperity.” Another is Kim’s statement that “the Mt. Baektu revolutionary tradition is the only tradition of the North Korean revolution” and his reminders about the “bloody history of the guerillas.” According to North Korea’s state-run Rodong Sinmun, Kim “recollected the bloody history of the guerillas” while “riding a steed across the vast area of Mt. Baektu together with the commanding officers who accompanied him,” including Pak Jong-chon, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army. Kim has hinted that his position vis-à-vis the US will include shows of force, with a domestic focus on the “construction of socialism under the banner of self-sufficiency” that he elaborated in this year’s New Year’s address, and an international focus on “the spirit of the guerillas.”

Kim’s emphasis that the “line of self-prosperity” is a “lifeline” appears to indicate that walking down a “new path” will not mean jettisoning the strategic line of state development, namely “focusing all energy on building the socialist economy,” which was adopted during the 3rd Plenum of the 7th WPK Central Committee last year. Though some experts predict that North Korea will revert to its “two-track” line of developing both the economy and a nuclear arsenal, the chances of that are low. Since Kim’s rationale for switching from the two-track line to an economy-focused line was that North Korea has “completed its state nuclear power” and become a “global nuclear power state,” it would be illogical to return to the two-track line. Furthermore, such a return would weaken North Korea’s five-year economic development strategy, running from 2016 to 2020, and could even undermine Kim’s rule. Kim has recently emphasized that “self-prosperity,” or wealth and prosperity achieved autonomously, represent an “unchanging development course.”

Experts with extensive experience in inter-Korean relations and the North Korean nuclear issue believe that Kim could try to upset the status quo in Northeast Asia by launching a satellite when the time is right. “It’s relatively unlikely that Kim will carry out a nuclear test or launch an ICBM, but he could conceivably resort to a satellite launch,” one expert said. The reasoning here is that, in the case of a nuclear test, North Korea probably wouldn’t receive active support or cooperation from China or Russia.

While satellite launches are also under UN sanctions because they involve the same basic technology as ICBMs, North Korea has argued that this infringes on its right as a sovereign country to the peaceful use of space.

“Kim’s recent actions constitute a fierce demonstration against the US, but the problem is that this approach doesn’t work with the US. What’s worrying is that the crisis index is rapidly rising but there aren’t any visible opportunities to turn things around,” a former high-ranking official said.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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