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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends a ribbon-cutting ceremony for the Yangdok County Hot Spring Cultural Recreation Center in South Pyongan Province on Dec. 7. (Yonhap News)

The Sohae (West Sea) launch site at Tongchang Village in North Korea, which announced an “important test” there on Dec. 8, includes a satellite launch pad and engine testing ground. It’s a highly sensitive area in military terms, with the US viewing North Korea’s past satellite launches as “ICBM testing.” Pyongyang appears to be applying heavier pressure on Washington to make a decision on bilateral negotiations before the end of the year, which Pyongyang has set as a deadline.

In their speculation, experts are favoring the likelihood that the North’s latest test involved solid propellant for ICBM use. While some have suggested it may have tested a new liquid propellant for satellites, either type could be tied to long-range missile launches. A satellite launch would use the same technology as an ICBM launch. Also hinting at the military nature of the latest test is the fact that it was carried out at the Academy of Defense Sciences, which has directed the North’s missile development.

Engine testing would not be in violation of the moratorium on ICBM launches declared by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in his pledge to US President Donald Trump. In other words, it could not be seen as crossing a “red line.”

“North Korea is insisting that this is the ‘last chance,’” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Dongguk University.

“The attitude from the US has been in favor of carrying on the momentum without upsetting the apple cart, whereas North Korea is looking to ratchet up pressure as much as possible to get negotiations happening by the end of the year,” Koh said.

Pyongyang is reportedly disgruntled with the US’s attempts to maintain the status quo without offering a “new method of calculation” in terms of security guarantees and sanctions relief. Kim Song, North Korea’s ambassador to the UN, said on Dec. 7 that denuclearization was “already gone off the negotiating table,” describing the “alleged ‘sustained and substantial dialogue’ claimed by the United States” as “merely a time-saving trick.”

Koh suggested that North Korea “may see it as unlikely that the US will come out with a new method of calculation in light of President Trump’s election schedule.”

Some observers are suggesting that North Korea’s latest test may have been a preview of a satellite or ICBM launch to come. Cho Sung-ryul, a consultant research fellow for the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), said North Korea “seems to be holding the US accountable for failing to keep its promise since the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi.”

“This could be seen as a warning that the next measure is going to be a satellite launch,” Cho suggested.

North Korea has recently complained of feeling “betrayed” by the US failing to repay it for its preliminary denuclearization measures such as suspending nuclear and ICBM testing and closing its nuclear test site at Punggye Village, which have been touted instead as achievements by Trump.

At a June 2018 summit with the US in Singapore, North Korea agreed to the establishment of new bilateral relations, the establishment of a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, complete denuclearization, and the repatriation of US soldiers’ remains. It went on to dismantle a portion of its engine testing site at Tongchang Village. At an inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang the following September, Kim Jong-un promised to “permanently dismantle the Tongchang engine site and missile launch sites as a first step, with experts from relevant countries as observers.” The latest test shows that North Korea does not plan to remain bound to that pledge going forward.

Also noteworthy is the fact that the test came at a time when North Korea has been trading threatening rhetoric and actions with the US. On Dec. 3, Ri Thae-song, North Korea’s vice foreign minister for US affairs, warned that it was “entirely up to the US what Christmas gift it will select to get.” When Trump subsequently suggested the possibility of the US using military force, Pak Jong-chon, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, immediately declared, “If the US uses any armed forces against the DPRK, we will also take prompt corresponding actions at any level.”

At the same time, both sides seem to be striving for now to keep the situation from breaking down, as each delivers the ball to the other side’s court.

“What happens next depends on the decision that President Trump makes,” said Koh Yu-hwan.

“There’s still the possibility of North Korea and the US striking some dramatic deal to maintain the momentum for dialogue without allowing things to head toward catastrophe.”

Cho Sung-ryul predicted, “Things could end up going past the point of no return if North Korea officially reverses its current approach at the Workers’ Party Central Committee plenary session that is expected to take place late this month.”

“President Trump should send a personal letter to show that the US has changed its stance and dissuade [North Korea] from making the situation any worse,” he advised.

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer, and Park Min-hee, staff reporter

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