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A tweet about North Korea’s recent tests at its Sohae Satellite Launching Station posted by Jeffrey Lewis, an American expert in nuclear nonproliferation and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program, on Dec. 9

North Korea carried out a “very important test” at its Sohae Satellite Launching Station, in Tongchang Village, on the afternoon of Dec. 7, according to a statement in the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Dec. 8. But as of Dec. 9, no further details had been provided about the test in question. Also notable was the fact that news of the test didn’t appear in the Rodong Sinmun, the publication read on a daily basis by North Koreans. The South Korean government has also declined to comment on the exact nature of the test. In a precarious situation in which North Korea is staring down the US as it stresses its end-of-the-year deadline for salvaging the negotiations, both South and North Korea are exercising prudence.

When North Korea tests a new weapon, it typically provides the public with a detailed account of the test the very next day in the Rodong Sinmun and the KCNA along with pictures and video footage. Each of the 13 test launches of new weapons between May 4 and Nov. 28 of this year was covered extensively on the first and second pages of the Rodong Sinmun. But curiously enough, this test wasn’t announced to a domestic audience or given any follow-up coverage, even though the initial statement described it as “very important.”

According to analyses provided on Dec. 9 by South Korean government officials and experts on North Korea, there are basically three possible reasons for the North’s actions.

The first theory is that North Korea doesn’t intend to disclose the test results until the plenary session at the end of December, reflecting a comment in the Dec. 8 statement that the results of the test have been presented to the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). A second view is that North Korea is leaving open the possibility for negotiations with the US, since time still remains before the end-of-the-year deadline it has given the US to come up with a “new calculation.”

A final interpretation is that North Korea hasn’t provided the details yet because there could be another test before the end of the year. That would explain why the spokesperson of the Academy of National Defense Science remarked that “the results of the recent important test will have an important effect on changing the strategic position of the DPRK [North Korea] once again in the near future.” The statement can be seen as representing a “strategy of ambiguity” and a “multifaceted move” that accounts for several possibilities, including the possible resumption of negotiations with the US.

“North Korea is managing its message since there’s still a chance of negotiations before the end of December. If North Korea were to specifically disclose technology that’s closely related to its strategic status, it would be effectively releasing the results of the plenary session in advance. So after sending this signal, it intends to wait until the plenary session, where it will make its ‘new path’ official unless there’s a change of attitude from the US,” said Lee Jeong-cheol, a professor at Soongsil University.

“North Korea appears to have focused on the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in order to put pressure on the US,” a South Korean government official added.

“North Korea seems uncomfortable with the idea of providing a domestic audience with detailed information about foreign developments. It may have concluded that that would be disadvantageous, since it could raise questions about Kim Jong-un’s foreign policy achievements, including his three meetings with the leader of the US,” said Kim In-tae, head of research at the Institute for National Security Strategy.

The South Korean government is also acting with caution, in an apparent attempt not to annoy North Korea. During the regular press briefing on Dec. 9, Ministry of National Defense Spokesperson Choi Hyeon-su said that “South Korea and the US are cooperating closely in surveillance and monitoring” but said she couldn’t get into the specifics “because of an ongoing in-depth analysis by the South Korean and American intelligence services.”

“The leaders of South Korea and the US had a phone call on Dec. 7, and the North Korea-US issue is complicated, too. There’s no particular reason to issue [a position],” an official at the Blue House said.

By Noh Ji-won and Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporters

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]