hankyoreh

Former South Korean Ambassador to Russia Wi Sung-lac and Korean National Diplomatic Academy Chancellor Kim Joon-hyung discuss US-China tensions and North Korea at the Hankyoreh on June 10. (Park Jong-shik, staff photographer)

Former South Korean Ambassador to Russia Wi Sung-lac and Korean National Diplomatic Academy Chancellor Kim Joon-hyung shared messages of concern about Pyongyang’s recently aggressive stance toward Seoul over propaganda balloon launches toward North Korea by defector groups.

Kim described North Korea’s sudden condemnation of the South as an “expression of frustration.”

“Having seen that the balloons are still being launched and having observed reports that South Korea-US joint military exercises are continuing to take place at the battalion level and lower, North Korea perceives South Korea as breaking inter-Korean agreements,” he said.

“There’s been discontentment building up over that, and it looks like it has now erupted over the balloon issue,” he suggested.

Kim also saw another aim as being to crack down internally within North Korea, as with the citizen demonstrations against the balloon launches that have been held for days on end in Pyongyang. Commenting on the central role played by Kim Yo-jong, first vice director of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) Central Committee and sister of leader Kim Jong-un, he said, “It seems like they decided it would be more effective in terms of internal unity [in North Korea] to have Kim Yo-jong -- someone who played a leading role in dialogue -- making a strong statement about dialogue failing because of South Korea and the US not keeping their promises.”

Wi said that while North Korea may be going after the South, its real focus is the US. Concluding that negotiations over the North Korean nuclear issue have been “going downhill since the North Korea-US summit in 2018,” he said that North Korea “wants to be provocative in order to change the US’ way of approaching things, but it’s only doing so now after being unable to before with the variable of the novel coronavirus spreading.”

“For North Korea to engage in provocations directly with the US is a difficult equation that requires a number of calculations. They view South Korea as relatively easier to deal with, and that’s how they’re responding,” he said.

Regarding what decisions Pyongyang makes going forward, both Wi and Kim predicted that while it may intensify its response with an eye toward after the US presidential election, it is unlikely to engage in any large-scale provocations with the potential to upend the situation for the time being.

“North Korea views the nuclear negotiations as a negotiation with President [Donald Trump], so the likelihood of them engaging in a major provocation involving something like intercontinental ballistic missiles [ICBMs] appears slight,” Wi said.

“That said, they may do it anyway in order to seize the advantage in negotiations and build their position for after the US election,” he added.

Kim offered a similar prediction. “If you look at things like the personal letters North Korea has been sending, they don’t want to disrupt the relationship formed among the South and North Korean and US leaders,” he said.

“The possibility is low, but the only way to create room for turning the Korean Peninsula’s tide back toward dialogue and cooperation is if the US takes action with South Korea acting as a mediator with the North,” he predicted.

By Kim So-youn, staff reporter

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