hankyoreh

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, then US President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in at their surprise summit in Panmunjom on June 30, 2019. (Kim Jung-hyo/The Hankyoreh)

On July 6, 2017, South Korean President Moon Jae-in proclaimed that the only thing that Koreans want is peace. In a speech in Berlin, he unveiled the new South Korean administration’s plan for peace on the Korean Peninsula, but his appeal went unanswered.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and then-US President Donald Trump were playing a “chicken game” that was dragging the Korean Peninsula closer to war. Just two days before Moon made his appeal for peace, Kim test-fired the Hwasong-14, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of striking the US mainland. That took place on July 4, the US’s Independence Day.

“We have reached the final point in our long confrontation with the American imperialists,” Kim said at the time.

On Aug. 5, the UN adopted Resolution 2371, which fully banned North Korea from trading coal, its primary export product. Trump threatened that North Korea “will be met with fire and fury” on Aug. 8, and North Korea countered by carrying out its sixth nuclear weapon test on Sept. 3.

Moon doggedly pursued his agenda, stating that he would “put everything on the line to prevent war” in a commemorative address for Korea’s liberation from Japanese rule on Aug. 15, 2017.

On Sept. 19, Moon met with International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach at the UN General Assembly and submitted a resolution for an “Olympic truce” for the duration of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 2018. That was on the same day — and in the same place — where Trump threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea.

When Kim said on Nov. 29 that North Korea had “completed its nuclear force” following the test launch of the Hwasong-15 ICBM, Moon detected a “signal of a transition toward negotiations.” He then boldly announced on Dec. 19 that Seoul would “consider delaying its joint military exercises with the US,” which helped engineer a shift from confrontation to cooperation.

A complex series of moves and countermoves by South Korea, North Korea, the US and China — the four parties to the Korean War — played out rapidly from January 2018 to June 2019. In short succession, there were three inter-Korean summits, two North Korea-US summits, and five North Korea-China summits, as well as a meeting between Kim, Trump and Moon in Panmunjom, the first ever trilateral summit of its kind.

Moon helped to broker meetings and dialogue between Kim and Trump. Kim promised Moon that the two would always move forward together, hand in hand, just as they were in that moment. Trump and Kim signed a document agreeing to establish new relations between their countries.

But the failure of the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi struck a heavy blow to Kim’s leadership and pride. Since then, he has prepared for a long siege, repeating slogans about “self-sufficiency” and a “frontal assault.” Meanwhile, Trump was booted from office amid the chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Now that Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, has completed his review of the US’s North Korea policy, will he make an overture of peace and cooperation to Moon and Kim?

There are positive signs, such as Biden hinting that he’ll take a gradual approach and his emphasis on pragmatism and diplomacy, along with the goal of “complete denuclearization” stipulated in the North Korea-US joint statement signed on June 12, 2018.

One negative sign is that Biden has focused his foreign strategy on countering China, leaving North Korea policy a secondary objective. Biden’s prioritization of the Iranian nuclear negotiations is another reason to think he won’t concentrate on North Korea policy.

Moon’s advisors and officials say that he will have done well if he can maintain stability in his final year in office. They urge him to keep doing his best but not to get impatient.

“The president is the person in the government who’s most committed to improving inter-Korean relations,” a key official in the Moon administration said Sunday.

Will Moon be able to persuade Biden in their summit on May 21 to make North Korea an offer attractive enough for Kim to let down his defenses and once again take the initiative in the Korean Peninsula peace process?

In his final year in office, will Moon be able to resume the Korean Peninsula peace process, turning the situation around in the eleventh hour? Or will all of his efforts go to waste?

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]