hankyoreh

Seong Han-yong

By Seong Han-yong, senior editorial writer

Opinion polls about next year's presidential election in South Korea show that support for former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl has sagged. His weak presidential announcement and the imprisonment of his mother-in-law appear to have dampened his appeal in the short term. At least for the opposition, the outline of the presidential election will likely be determined for now by fluctuations in Yoon's support.

First, if Yoon's support rises, he will push aside the majority opposition People Power Party (PPP) and seize the initiative in the race. He could even establish a new party that would absorb the PPP or attempt to field a combined candidate shortly before the presidential election.

Second, if Yoon's support falls, the PPP will regain the initiative. That would force Yoon to join the PPP and compete with the party's other frontrunners, Hong Joon-pyo, Yoo Seong-min, and Won Hee-ryong.

Third, if Yoon's support plummets, he might have to give up his presidential bid altogether. That would set off a scramble between other presidential hopefuls in the opposition to take his place. Choe Jae-hyeong, former head of the Board of Audit and Inspection, might vault to the head of the pack.

Under any of these scenarios, Yoon's fate and the conservative opposition's fate are tied to the numerical outcomes of the ongoing flood of opinion polls.

Indeed, Yoon's political career began with a poll. Here's part of the speech he made announcing his candidacy on June 29: "Following my resignation from public office, Korean citizens understood why I had to step down and have shown me unceasing encouragement and support. I've spent a lot of time thinking about the meaning of that. [. . .] It means that I should dedicate myself to leading a change of government."

The following day, Yoon visited the press room at the National Assembly. "If it hadn't been for that poll you ran, I wouldn't be here today," he told reporters manning a booth for the Segye Ilbo. He was referring to an article published in the Jan. 31, 2020, issue of that newspaper titled, "Rise of Yoon Seok-youl fueled by support from independents and the new right."

A poll of presidential hopefuls that appeared in the same article showed Yoon with 10.8% of support, behind Lee Nak-yon (32.2%) and ahead of Hwang Kyo-ahn (10.1%), Lee Jae-myung (5.6%), and Park Won-soon (4.6%).

That was the first poll in which Yoon, then the sitting prosecutor general, rose to second place, beating out the head of the majority opposition party. His remarks amount to a confession that his political ambitions had been sparked by opinion polls.

Polls are accompanied by the "bandwagon effect." That's a term in economics referring to the fact that people tend to buy products that are already popular.

The same bandwagon effect is responsible for the problems with polling in Korean politics today. Polls create an illusion that draws in political neophytes who rely on an anti-political creed and makes it harder to keep them out of politics.

One such example is Ahn Cheol-soo, current head of the People's Party, who ran in the presidential election in 2012 at the height of his popularity, after bowing out of the by-election for the Seoul mayoralty in 2011 in favor of Park Won-soon.

Another example is Ban Ki-moon, former secretary-general of the UN, who was floated as a conservative alternative after the devastating impeachment of Park Geun-hye in 2017.

To be sure, the desire for glory and power are a fundamental part of human nature. Even reasonable people can lose their heads when polls show a spike in support, falling prey to the delusion that they're smart enough to be president, or that they have the blessing of heaven.

That doesn't happen to everyone, of course. Former prime ministers Goh Kun and Chung Un-chan saved their reputation by resisting the siren song of positive polls.

Opinion polls are essential in politics, given the need to understand public sentiment. But they should only be a reference point.

On a fundamental level, polls are irresponsible. Simple preferences are no substitute for the carefully considered political choices of genuinely enthusiastic stakeholders.

The same poll found that more people want the Democrats to lose power than to keep it and that Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, a Democrat, would defeat Yoon Seok-youl, an opposition candidate. Those results are contradictory.

Basing party primary outcomes and combined candidacies on the outcomes of opinion polls is no different from gambling. Embarrassingly enough, that's the state of affairs in Korean politics today.

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And it's not like we don't have alternatives. We could recruit electors to vote by mobile phone. We're no longer living in an era when people could be paid to join a political party. Organized mobilization can't beat voluntary participation by the public.

The PPP's presidential candidate will be decided by electors' votes and an opinion poll, with the two methods receiving equal weight. But some people think the entire decision should be thrown to a poll.

PPP lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo had a ready response for that: "What's the point of direct voting then? Just leave it to the pollsters."

Hong's right.

Casting a vote for candidates for elected office is a sacred procedure by which the sovereign people exercise political power. That's largely true for party primaries as well. We shouldn't entrust our primaries to the polls.

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]