hankyoreh

Two staff members at the Songpa District Office stand in front of a monitor displaying the COVID-19 confirmed case count announced Thursday (cases tallied until midnight Wednesday). (Shin So-young/The Hankyoreh)

As infections caused by the Omicron variant approach their peak, the number of new COVID-19 cases in South Korea surged to over 600,000 as of the end of Wednesday. Although these figures include cases that were not reported the previous day due to a system glitch, the number of confirmed cases did surpass 1 million in the course of two days, reflecting a dramatic rise in infections. The number of deaths that day also exceeded 400, the highest number to date in South Korea.

It is necessary to look back on whether the current situation is the result of the failure of the government’s eased social distancing policies which were implemented based on hasty optimism.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, the number of new confirmed cases as of the end of the day Wednesday was 621,328. The number increased by 220,000 compared to the previous day while the average daily new infections stood at 387,000 for a week.

The number of deaths also more than doubled from the count announced Wednesday to 429. These numbers are proving far higher than what disease control authorities originally predicted. Based on prediction models from various domestic research institutes, health authorities estimated that the peak period of the Omicron spread would take place between March 16-22, with the number of new daily cases reaching between 320,000 to 370,000. The problem now is that, given the sharp rise in daily cases, the peak period may be delayed or last longer while the number of cases associated with the peak may also increase even more.

The reason why disease control authorities’ predictions are often wrong is that they are constantly trying to send signals that point to the easing of social distancing and other disease prevention measures to reassure the public. Authorities justify their optimistic stance by using the results of spread simulations published by research institutes.

As the government continues to ease its disease prevention policies such as social distancing, the public’s concerns with regards to such policies have eased and, as a result, the scale of the virus spread continuously exceeds original predictions.

The government cited Omicron’s case fatality rate, which has been lowered to the level of the seasonal flu, and the capacity to provide intensive care beds as a basis for optimism. Although it is true that Omicron's fatality rate is 0.09%, similar to that of the flu, the transmissibility and scale of infections caused by Omicron are incomparable to that of the flu.

The flu affects 2.5 to 5 million people annually, but the number of confirmed cases of Omicron has reached 6.5 million in the last two months alone. Even if the fatality rate is similar, Omicron is bound to cause a much higher number of deaths. Moreover, although there are still beds available for critical patients, this might not be the case in the near future if the current upward trend continues. If there is a shortage of beds, those at high risk may lose their lives if they do not receive timely treatment.

The core of the government’s Omicron response system can be said to be protecting high-risk groups and minimizing harm. This is a difficult goal to achieve if the epidemic spreads on a scale that exceeds the medical system’s capacity to respond. It is time to let go of the impatience to return to normal daily life and face the harsh reality of the situation we are currently facing.

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