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Japanese voters drop their ballots in the box at a polling station on July 10. (EPA/Yonhap News)

“We are not at a stage where we can mention what effect this will have in the political situation moving forward. I have yet to start thinking about the matter as well. What’s important is to first come up with a thorough response so that ‘life-saving measures’ can be taken regarding the harsh situation currently.”

It was 2:40 pm on Friday. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had made a hasty return to his official residence in Tokyo after hearing the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot. His face stiff with nervousness, Kishida stood in front of cameras, avoiding a direct answer to reporters asking about the kind of effect the shooting would have on Japan's political landscape by stating that “life-saving measures” would be prioritized.

Nevertheless, Abe did not recover consciousness and was declared dead at around 5:04 pm on the same day.

But Abe’s death raises the possibility that a push to amend Article 9 may take over in the political world. During Abe’s time as prime minister, the LDP presented an amendment plan in 2018 that included the introduction of provisions in Article 9 providing a basis for the Japan Self-Defense Forces’ existence.

With East Asia on the cusp of entering a new Cold War, the unexpected death of Abe, who served as Japan’s prime minister for seven years and eight months from December 2012 to September 2020 and set the course of the world’s third-largest economy, will inevitably have enormous reverberations in Japan as well as in the Indo-Pacific and the world at large.

The House of Councillors election in Japan on Sunday is what’s drawing immediate interest following the assassination. There’s an expression in Japanese called “tomurai gassen,” which signifies an election that takes place in the wake of the unexpected death of an influential politician. Because the election typically takes place amidst a flurry of remembrances for the deceased, the side believed to succeed the deceased’s political will usually wins the election by a huge margin.

Observers had already been predicting that Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party was set to win the upcoming election in a landslide against opposition parties, afflicted as they are with discord and division.

The election has been drawing some attention, with observers wondering whether Kishida would begin showing his own identity after spending the time since his inauguration last October weighed down by Abe’s hard-line policy approach.

But in the wake of Abe’s shocking death, the election has turned into a battle to commemorate him, rather than to establish Kishida’s independence.

Even if they don’t win in the election, hard-liners like Sanae Takaichi and Koichi Hagiuda could gain more influence than Kishida. Abe’s wing — the Seiwa Policy Research Council — is a group of traditional hawks and conservatives that commands the most LDP seats in the current Diet, with 95.

If the hard-line faction does gain control, this would have an enormous impact on the amendment of the Japanese Constitution and future Japanese foreign affairs and national security policies. While Kishida supports amending the document itself, he has remained circumspect about Article 9 — a key provision in the so-called “peace constitution” that repudiates Japan’s possession of a military and right of belligerency.

But Abe’s death raises the possibility that a push to amend Article 9 may take over in the political world. During Abe’s time as prime minister, the LDP presented an amendment plan in 2018 that included the introduction of provisions in Article 9 providing a basis for the Japan Self-Defense Forces’ existence.

The next area concerns Tokyo’s approach in foreign affairs and national security.

In its latest collection of election pledges, the LDP wrote that, “In light of NATO setting the target of increasing the national defense budget to 2% or more of gross domestic product, we will begin work next year on achieving the necessary budget within five years.” If that happens, Japan’s defense budget will exceed 10 trillion yen within five years, making it the third largest in the world.

While Kishida has said that the “numbers for the defense budget increase have not been determined,” he may find himself crowded out by the hardliners.

In the medium to long term, the situation is expected to have a serious impact on US-Japan relations and South Korea-Japan cooperation.

In April 2015, Abe beefed up Japan’s alliance with the US through the amendment of the Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation; in 2016, he first spoke about his vision for a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” which is now Washington’s East Asia policy. More recently, he had been making reference to the Chinese military threat to Taiwan, sharing his view that “an emergency for Taiwan is an emergency for Japan.”

In terms of relations with South Korea, the “Abe Statement” of August 2015 stressed that Japan would not be offering any more apologies. After the comfort women agreement reached with Seoul later that year, he emphasized that Japan “cannot budge even a millimeter” on its terms.

As the Yoon Suk-yeol administration works to improve relations with Japan, the recent tragedy could end up spelling disaster.

In related news, the House of Councillors election in Japan on Sunday resulted in pro-constitutional amendment forces gaining more than two-thirds of the seats in the nation’s parliament — the number of seats needed to propose an amendment to the constitution.

In the wake of Abe’s death, those in favor of a revised constitution for Japan won the election in the country in a landslide, which has made it all the more likely that Japan will amend its pacifist constitution that has been in place for the past 70 or so years, since the end of WWII, realizing what Abe has called his “life’s goal.”

On Monday, NHK reported that Abe’s LDP had secured 63 seats on its own, with coalition parties Komeito picking up 13, Japan Innovation Party picking up 12, and the Democratic Party for the People winning five seats. That means parties amenable to amending the constitution won a whopping 93 seats, or more than two-thirds of the 125 seats up for grabs in this election.

As pro-constitutional amendment forces also have a supermajority in the House of Representatives, those in favor of a Japan capable of war will be able to revise Japan’s constitution whenever they wish.

Earlier, the LDP declared in its book of campaign pledges released on June 16 that it would “realize the amendment of the constitution at the earliest time.”

By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter; Kim So-youn, Tokyo correspondent

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