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At the 14th Asia Future Forum held in Seoul on Oct. 11, Sohn Suk-hee, the former anchor of JTBC’s news broadcast, speaks with Graham Allison, the former US assistant secretary of defense, who teleconferenced into the event. (Kim Jung-hyo/The Hankyoreh)

Considering that South Korea has depended upon the US for national security and China for its economy, what strategic choice should Korea make now that those two countries are locked in a hegemonic struggle?

That’s a question Koreans cannot ignore as they’re already being affected, both directly and indirectly, by the US and China’s fierce struggle for hegemony.

In Keynote Session 2 of the 14th Asia Future Forum, which was hosted by the Hankyoreh Media Group on Wednesday, Graham Allison, a former US assistant secretary of defense, advised that Korea be more proactive and vocal amid the US and China’s hegemonic rivalry.

To be sure, the former US official predicted that Korea will likely come under heavy pressure as it seeks to balance the increasingly complex international interests given the impracticality of prioritizing relations with either the US or China.

Teleconferencing into the event to present his keynote, titled “In an Era of Rising Hegemony, What’s South Korea’s Choice,” Allison explained that the US-led unipolar system that has persisted since the end of the Cold War is coming to an end and explained that the rise of China is altering the geopolitical order.

Allison noted that “the era of US military primacy is over,” borrowing a phrase from former US Defense Secretary James Mattis, and urged observers to acknowledge that the US-China rivalry has spread to all domains, including the sky, sea, outer space and cyberspace. The security expert is also concerned that a conflict between the two powers could lead to a grim future.

Allison has described the fate of the US-China hegemonic rivalry in terms of “Thucydides’ trap,” a concept he derives from ancient Athenian historian Thucydides, author of the “History of the Peloponnesian War.”

The security expert has identified 16 times over the past five centuries when a hegemonic power has been challenged by a rising power, with 12 of those challenges leading to war. Thucydides’ trap is what happens when a rising power attempts to replace the current hegemonic power.

Allison argues that both the US and China have fallen into Thucydides’ trap, making the likelihood of war extremely high. While raising questions about the timing or form of such a war, he predicts that Taiwan is likely to be the trigger of any such conflict.

Citing the concept of MAD (mutually assured destruction), the security expert mentioned that a war between the US and China could tragically lead to the destruction of both sides, without either side gaining a definite victory.

But Allison said the rivalry between the two nuclear-armed states involves not only MAD but also economic ties that tend to reduce the possibility of a clash.

Allison also said the two countries can avoid a conflict through the concept of “cooperative competition.” As an example, he mentioned how Samsung and Apple have a competitive relationship in the smartphone market but a cooperative relationship in the parts market.

But he also drew listeners’ attention to the historical experience of undesired wars, such as Mao Zedong’s decision to bring China into the Korean War.

In a following conversation with Sohn Suk-hee, a former newsroom anchor for JTBC, Allison said that Korea needs to be more proactive about securing its geopolitical interests.

Korea could stand to be more vocal in its relationships with the US, China and Russia, the security expert said, adding that Korea needs to figure out the predicament it’s in and be proactive as a participant and interested party.

Allison said there’s no reason for Korea to meekly submit to a strategy chosen by the US or China, adding that Korea is capable of expressing its viewpoint more clearly and sharply to the governments of the US, China and Russia.

According to Allison, Korea finds itself in an extremely multifaceted and complex situation where it must rely upon the US for its national defense and upon China for its economic prosperity. Korea need not be trapped in a dichotomous choice between the two, he advised.

Korea needs to get used to playing in the big leagues, he said.

Beginning in the late 1970s, Allison spent 30 years first as dean of the Harvard Kennedy School and then as director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, also at Harvard. As author of “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis” and “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap,” he is regarded as one of the world’s top security experts.

By Ryu Yi-geun, senior staff writer at the Hankyoreh Economy and Society Research Institute

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