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People wait in line at a temporary COVID-19 screening station in front of Seoul Station on Tuesday. (Yonhap News)

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) has forecasted that the number of new COVID-19 cases in Korea will reach 3,500-4,300 per day in the latter part of October if the average fourth wave trend continues and could reach as high as 5,000 if the situation worsens.

However, the government has stated it will be possible to prepare for the contagion’s spread by expanding at-home treatment for asymptomatic and mild cases due to a limited increase in severe case numbers thanks to the steadily rising vaccination rate.

On Wednesday, People Power Party lawmaker Baek Jong-hean received materials from the KDCA which contained the results of an analysis performed on Sep. 30 on short-term COVID forecasts. According to this data, it is predicted that the number of daily cases will reach 3,500-4,300 by the end of October and 3,300-4,900 by the end of November in the event that the ‘average fourth wave trend continues.’ If the trend takes a turn for the worse, the figures are around 5,000 daily cases for the end of October and more than 5,000 by the end of November.

The mathematical model predicts future case numbers by considering factors such as the current incidence and transmission rate of COVID-19, as well as the fatality rate and vaccination rate, but the models could differ from reality.

Daily case numbers have remained above 2,000 in the week since 3,271 cases were recorded on Sep. 25. There has been a slight lull, but there is a high likelihood that the virus will continue to spread. The Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) explained that the daily average of domestic cases was 2489.6 last week (Sep. 26 to Oct. 2), the highest figure on record and a 22.7% increase over the previous week’s average of 2028.3.

In particular, the reproduction number — the expected number of cases directly generated by a single case of COVID-19 — was 1.20, a large increase over the 1.04 recorded a week earlier. The respective reproduction numbers for the capital and non-capital areas were 1.19 and 1.25, and the virus is mainly spreading outside the greater Seoul area after many people traveled during the Chuseok holiday.

“The trend is becoming more serious in general, including a new high for weekly case numbers last week,” the CDCH said. “Case numbers have dropped off as we entered October, but this is due to lower numbers of tests performed on weekends, so it is still higher than the weekend prior to Chuseok. We predict that mobility and interpersonal contact will rise for seasonal factors such as people venturing outside in autumn and public holidays such as Hangul Day, so the risk of higher case numbers still remains.”

However, there has been no significant increase in the number of serious cases as the vaccination rate continues to climb. The average weekly number of serious cases was 327 last week, only slightly higher than the previous week (324). There were 63 deaths recorded, a 34% increase over the prior week’s figure of 47. As of the end of Tuesday, the nationwide vaccination rate stood at 77.5% for the first-dose vaccinations, and 54.5% for fully vaccinated.

In response to this, the government has announced a plan to prepare for rising case numbers by allowing more asymptomatic and mild cases to be treated at home.

Minister of Health and Welfare Kwon Deok-cheol took part in the National Assembly’s annual inspection of government departments and agencies on Wednesday by answering questions from the governing body’s Health and Welfare Committee. In response to a question regarding the government’s measures to curb the post-Chuseok spread, he said, “It is important to look after severe patients and ensure [the virus] doesn’t lead to death. I believe mild cases can be managed through home treatment.”

On the same day, the Central Disaster Management Headquarters stated that they had secured 1,038 hospital beds for severe cases, 452 for semi-severe cases and 9,767 for moderate cases, meaning that they are equipped to handle a daily caseload within the range of 3,000 to 3,500.

“In light of the declining rate of serious cases and a greater proportion of asymptomatic and mild cases due to vaccines, we will expand the use of at-home treatment,” the headquarters said. “We plan to appropriately allocate beds to severe cases by improving the patient classification system, promoting the use of local beds in each region, and formulating a plan to secure additional beds.”

By Kim Ji-hoon, staff reporter

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