hankyoreh

A line of people waiting to be tested for COVID-19 forms at a temporary screening station outside Seoul Station in central Seoul’s Jung District on Sunday. (Yonhap News)

According to Korea’s Central Disease Control Headquarters, 93 new cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 were confirmed in South Korea as of the end of the day Saturday. This brings the cumulative total of confirmed Omicron cases in the country to 1,207. Additionally, 220 and 269 new cases of the variant were reported on Friday and Thursday, respectively, demonstrating just how quickly the variant is spreading in the country.

Omicron is spreading 2.5 times faster than the Delta variant in South Korea. Since the country reported its first five confirmed cases of the variant on Dec. 1, the cumulative total of confirmed Omicron cases in the country jumped to over 1,000 in just a month’s time. In contrast, it took the Delta variant 78 days to reach a cumulative total of 1,000 confirmed cases since it was first reported on April 22 of last year.

According to the South Korean government, the surge in the number of confirmed Omicron cases may be a product of a new polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test sensitive to the variant that was first distributed Thursday. The new PCR test can detect the Omicron variant within three to four hours.

Previously, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency had to conduct whole-genome sequencing to detect the Omicron variant, which took anywhere between three to five days. Considering the timing of the new PCR test’s distribution, the speed of Omicron’s spread can be estimated to be 2.5 times that of the Delta variant.

Since Omicron is more communicable than Delta, Korea’s public health authorities predict that it will soon become the dominant strain of the coronavirus in the country and that the number of cases will rise.

In a joint study, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the Korea Institute of Science and Technology predicted that the daily tally of COVID-19 cases will rise above 10,000 by the end of January even if Korea continues its heightened infectious disease control curbs, which include requiring businesses to close by 9 pm and limiting private gatherings to four people. This study assumed that Omicron is on average four times more infectious than Delta.

Experts predict that we will most likely not be seeing the end of the pandemic in 2022.

“Given the characteristics exhibited [by COVID-19] thus far, this isn’t a virus that’s going to just disappear. Several kinds [of variants] will appear for some time. We might move away from social distancing as more effective vaccines or medications are developed, but it’s not going to go away,” said Eom Joong-sik, a professor of infectious disease at Gachon University Gil Medical Center, in an interview with the Hankyoreh on Sunday.

Developments with Omicron and other viral variants will be a major factor in returning to ordinary routines in the new year.

“It’s too soon to draw conclusions, but it’s a positive sign that deaths and hospitalizations are lower than before even though Omicron [infections] are peaking in Europe and the US,” noted Choe Kang-won, a professor of infectious disease at Myongji Hospital.

But Choe went on to say that “even if Omicron symptoms are mild, an increase of cases means there will be more patients in serious or critical condition and more deaths. The worst is yet to come.”

Another important variable in beating the pandemic this year is the efficacy of oral antivirals.

“I figure that we’ll move toward prescribing people oral medication to take at home and allow people to recover at home instead of in the hospital, provided that their symptoms don’t worsen. If the case fatality rate and the serious case incidence rate decrease, the number of cases becomes less important,” said Yoon Tae-ho, a professor of preventive medicine at Pusan National University.

“In the end, the critical question is the extent to which we can lower the case fatality rate,” he added.

The medical system will also require reinforcements to prepare for a surge in Omicron cases in the first half of the year.

“A conservative estimate is that we could be seeing from 10,000 to 15,000 cases of Omicron a day in late February and early March,” said Eom.

“Since the absolute number of patients is likely to increase, the number of patients in serious condition might not decrease even if a smaller percentage of cases become serious. It’s important to set aside as much hospital space as possible for serious patients and to create a system capable of providing a large number of patients with medical support and helping them with their livelihood,” Eom said.

Lee Jae-gap, professor of infectious disease at Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital, told the Hankyoreh, “We won’t be able to handle an increasing number of patients unless we can normalize a system of outpatient care. We can’t see all the patients with our current method of selecting confirmed cases for treatment.”

“We need to alter our treatment system so that we can give COVID-19 patients outpatient care just as we do with the flu,” he added.

By Park Jun-yong and Jang Hyeon-eun, staff reporters

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