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A staff member at a COVID-19 screening station in Seoul’s Songpa District gives directions to those waiting in line to be tested. (Yonhap News)

As the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus continues to spread, South Korea’s daily caseload rose above 20,000 for the first time on Wednesday. The Korean is government predicting that as the number of cases continues to surge over the coming weeks, the number of people in at-home care will reach 110,000 — the maximum the government can manage with its current resources.

Since experts predict the daily caseload will hit 30,000 or 40,000 after the extended holiday for the Lunar New Year and could reach as high as 100,000 within four to eight weeks, the government faces the urgent task of quickly expanding its patient management program in preparation.

Korea’s Central Disease Control Headquarters reported 20,270 new cases of COVID-19 as of the end of the day, Tuesday. That was 1,928 more than the previous day’s tally of 18,342. After first exceeding 10,000 on Jan. 26, with 13,009 new cases, the caseload remained in the 10,000-20,000 range for seven days and then rose above 20,000 on the eighth day.

The government has said that by Friday it will finalize an adjustment to the current social distancing regime, which limits private gatherings to six people and requires most businesses to close at 9 pm. But even drastically bolstering social distancing regulations isn’t likely to stop the surging case numbers.

Considering that the number of cases rose sharply with only half as much testing during the Lunar New Year holiday, there’s likely to be a major surge of cases in the next few days. The daily caseload rose 2,728 from Saturday (17,542) even while the number of people being tested decreased from 734,770 on Saturday to 432,939 on Sunday, 388,944 on Monday, and 356,384 on Tuesday.

The positivity rate for COVID-19 tests was particularly high on Tuesday and Wednesday, at 9.3% and 8.9%, respectively. Not only are these rates higher than the average of 6.6% for the week between Jan. 27-Feb. 2, but they are the highest rates recorded in South Korea since the start of the pandemic. The positivity rate has more than doubled from 3.8%, the average during the previous week (Jan. 19-26).

“Since the positivity rate is going up, we expect the number of cases will increase even more once testing rebounds after the long holiday. Since it’s not easy to predict the extent of that increase, we’re currently discussing a range of contingency plans,” said Son Young-rae, director of social strategy at the Central Disaster Management Headquarters, during a briefing on Wednesday afternoon.

“The outbreak is about two or three weeks faster than we predicted a month and a half ago. The caseload after the extended holiday could be double what it was last week. It will soon reach 30,000 or 40,000 cases a day and could reach 100,000 in the next four to eight weeks,” said Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine.

The surge of cases has created an even greater need for the government to acquire the resources for managing at-home care. As of Wednesday, 89,420 Koreans were receiving at-home care — double the number on Jan. 27 (42,869 people).

“Currently, we believe we have enough resources to manage around 110,000 people, and we’re adding more health facilities to the program,” Son said, noting that South Korea could reach that limit by “around next week.”

The government plans to focus on recruiting more neighborhood health facilities to take part in testing and treatment, given the increase in patients receiving at-home care. As part of the government’s pivot to an Omicron-oriented approach to disease control, 391 respiratory clinics will begin providing COVID-19 diagnostic tests and treating people suspected of having contracted the virus. That number will eventually rise to a total of 428.

In addition to the respiratory clinics, 1,004 local health facilities had signed up to provide testing and treatment for COVID-19 as of Tuesday. The government will also designate them as respiratory care facilities.

Analysts are calling for other adjustments to the medical system, including the way that patients are categorized.

According to Eom Joong-sik, a professor of infectious disease at Gachon University Gil Medical Center, it won’t be impossible to manage patients as long as there are 30,000 cases a day and under 100,000 people receiving at-home care.

“But as patient sorting and kit delivery are delayed, as the number of patients goes up and as contact tracing breaks down, the situation could deteriorate going forward,” Eom said.

If the disease spreads more rapidly, Korea’s capacity to treat critically ill patients could become an important factor once again. The number of patients in serious or critical condition rose above 1,000 early last month before dropping below 300 during the current wave of Omicron, which is less likely to lead to serious, critical or fatal cases.

The number of patients in serious or critical condition continued to fall until Wednesday, when the tally stood at 278, up six from the day before.

“Now that the Omicron wave has begun, more people in high-risk groups are becoming infected, which is slowly leading to serious cases of the disease,” Eom said.

For the time being, however, Korea has plenty of hospital beds set aside for serious cases.

According to figures provided by the Central Disaster Management Headquarters at 5 pm Tuesday, the occupancy rate at COVID-19 intensive care units was 14.8% in the greater Seoul area and 15.9% around the country.

By Park Jun-yong, staff reporter

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