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Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party speaks to People Power Party presidential nominee Yoon Suk-yeol following a press conference on March 3 announcing that the two candidates were merging their campaigns. (pool photo)

With less than a week to go until the South Korean presidential election, the surprise campaign merger between People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol and People’s Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo has thrown a big variable into the race for the Blue House. While many project Yoon, now the undisputed frontrunner for the opposition, to hold an advantage in the March 9 election, polls hypothesizing an opposition campaign merger or a two-way race have indicated mixed results.

According to a Gallup Korea survey commissioned by Money Today and conducted from Tuesday to Wednesday, in a hypothetical three-way race amongst Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung, People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, and Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jung, results showed Yoon and Lee competing within a razor-thin margin, each candidate polling at 42.5% and 42.2%, respectively, while Sim polled at 7.3%. In the hypothetical three-way matchup, 26.8% of Ahn supporters cast their vote for Yoon, while 36.9% gave their support to Lee.

Similarly, an Embrain Public survey commissioned by Munhwa Ilbo showed Yoon and Lee neck and neck in a hypothetical match-up, with each candidate polling at 45.9% and 45%, respectively. In this survey, 29.5% of Ahn supporters switched over to Yoon’s side, while 25.2% voted for Lee. The survey was conducted from Tuesday to Wednesday and polled 1,002 voters across the country. It had a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Polling company Ipsos Korea also conducted a survey during the same period commissioned by The Korea Economic Daily, hypothesizing an opposition campaign merger. Results showed Yoon polling at 48.9% and Lee at 42.8%, the gap between the two candidates’ poll numbers within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. In this survey, 44.9% of Ahn supporters switched over to Yoon’s side, and 25.1% moved over to Lee’s.

On the other hand, an Embrain Public survey announced by JoongAng Ilbo on Thursday indicated that in the case of an opposition campaign merger, Yoon would prevail over Lee beyond the margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, with each candidate polling at 47.4% and 41.5%, respectively. Though results showed Yoon having the upper hand, 31.2% of Ahn supporters moved over to Lee’s side while 29.2% moved over to Yoon’s.

Not even the last poll result of a hypothetical three-way race released before the poll blackout period could delineate a clear pattern in Ahn supporters’ voting preference in the case of an opposition campaign merger. (For further details, please visit the National Election Survey Deliberation Committee website.)

Seo Bokyeung, head of The Possibility Lab, commented, “Ahn supporters will now be divided into three groups — Yoon supporters, Lee supporters, and those who will abstain from voting — but immediately following the campaign merger announcement, the prevailing view among Ahn supporters was that of betrayal.”

She added, “Particularly, those who decided to support Ahn after watching the last presidential debate televised on Wednesday night seem to feel very disappointed.”

Political commentator Kim Soo-min also said, “Though Yoon may garner more votes if Ahn can make up for Yoon’s image as a candidate that lacks substance, there’s no guarantee that the campaign merger will give Yoon any particular advantage.” In other words, the effect of the campaign merger between Yoon and Ahn won’t be as clear-cut as 1 + 1 = 2.

Still, analysts say that considering how close the match between Lee and Yoon has been, Yoon’s campaign merger with Ahn, who consistently polled at 7% to 8% on average, can’t be insignificant.

Professor of political science at Incheon University Lee Jun-han said, “In a toss-up situation like now, a single vote can make the world’s difference, so the outcome will be favorable for Yoon.”

Kim Yoon-cheol, a professor at Kyung Hee University, also said, “For moderates, [the opposition campaign merger] in some ways suggests that [two opposition parties] came together with the resolution for a political turnover, so Yoon seems to have seized the chance to win.”

Some even say Yoon solidified himself as a “stable candidate” by merging his campaign with Ahn’s. Park Sung-min, president of the political consultancy Min Consulting, said, “[The campaign merger] provided Yoon with the possibility that he’ll be perceived as having gained the restraining device of Ahn amid concerns that he might behave recklessly if he becomes president.” Nevertheless, he offered a caveat, “I don’t think much will change in how the race unfolds, as most voters who want a new party in power have already made their decision.”

Others project that the effect of the campaign merger will become more pronounced if Ahn puts serious weight behind supporting Yoon’s campaign, which would ensure that his supporters move over to Yoon’s side instead of breaking away.

During the 2012 presidential election, Ahn clashed with then-Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in during the campaign merger process, stepping down from his candidacy at the last minute and offering minimal support to Moon’s campaign.

Yong In University professor Choi Chang-ryul commented, “Because this election is such a toss-up, the campaign merger will have a psychological and symbolic effect and prove favorable for Yoon,” adding, “[The opposition campaign merger] seems to have a better look than the 2012 campaign merger between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo.”

By Lee Jae-hoon, staff reporter; Song Chae Kyung-hwa, staff reporter; Choi Ha-yan, staff reporter

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