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President Moon Jae-in and President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol (Hankyoreh graphic)

Predictions that President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol will do a “good job” with governance after taking office were down for a second straight week in polling results, which also showed a rise in predictions that he would perform “poorly.”

The 46% of respondents who expressed optimism over Yoon’s performance was nearly identical to the 46.7% who positively rated outgoing President Moon Jae-in, who is nearing the end of his term.

At the request of MediaHerald, the public opinion polling agency Realmeter surveyed 2,512 adult South Koreans nationwide between March 21 and 25. When asked whether they believed Yoon would do a “good job” of governance after taking office, 46% of respondents answered in the affirmative. The survey had a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Shortly after the election, polling results for the second week of March showed 52.7% of respondents expressing optimism over Yoon’s performance. That rate slid over the following two weeks, reaching 49.2% for the third week of March and 46% for the fourth.

The latest number is now lower than the 48.56% of the popular vote that Yoon received at the time of the 20th presidential election.

In contrast, pessimistic predictions that Yoon’s performance would be “poor” rose from 41.2% to 45.6% and 49.6% over the same period, overtaking optimistic predictions for the first time — albeit within the margin of error.

The latest survey also showed 46.7% of respondents agreeing that current President Moon Jae-in is doing a “good job” at governance. That rate was up by four percentage points from last week. Another 50.7% of respondents rated Moon’s performance as “poor,” down by 3.5 percentage points from last week.

The numbers suggest that expectations for Yoon’s performance as president are lower than for his predecessors.

Results from another survey published by Gallup Korea on Friday showed 55% of respondents predicting that Yoon would do a good job over the next five years. This stands in sharp contrast with previous presidents, who have typically enjoyed positive ratings in the range of 80% within the two weeks after their election.

In December 2007, President-elect Lee Myung-bak was supported by 84% of respondents. The rates for Presidents-elect Park Geun-hye in December 2012 and Moon in May 2017 were 78% and 87%, respectively.

Commenting on the unusually low rate of positive predictions for Yoon’s performance, an official at one public opinion polling agency said, “In the past, there tended to be a consensus toward implementing the winning side’s historical projects once the election was over.”

“This time around, the rift between the two sides hasn’t healed after the election, so expectations aren’t converging [on the winning side],” they suggested.

Some observers said the trend was attributable in particular to Yoon’s actions since his election, including his “sloppy” pursuit of a relocation of the presidential office and the conflicts that have erupted with his very first meeting with Moon — actions that look very little like the kind of “popular unity” he claims to be seeking.

Remarking on this, Gallup Korea researcher Jang Deok-hyun said, “Past administrations have raised hopes by presenting agendas that meet the demands of the times, such as economic recovery, economic democratization, or the resolution of deeply rooted problems.”

“If President-elect Yoon wants to raise his support ratings again, he’s going to need to pursue things that accord with national unity,” he suggested.

Yoon’s camp only said that Yoon planned to adopt a “humbler stance” with the public without hanging on the results of various polls.

In a briefing Monday morning, Yoon’s spokesperson, Kim Eun-hye, said, “We will take the survey findings deeply to heart and focus all the more on working to humbly serve the public.”

But some figures within Yoon’s People Power Party are voicing concern over the low expectations for his performance as the party gears up for the local elections that take place on June 1, shortly after he is officially inaugurated.

“It’s been 10 days since the transition committee was launched in earnest, and without us having clearly shown the public what [Yoon] intends to do, the foregrounding of the controversy over relocating the presidential office seems to have played a part [in the polling results],” an official with the transition committee said.

“The hopes have turned to disappointment,” the official added.

By Lee Wan, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]