hankyoreh

Vitor Abreu, adviser and owner of US geoscience research company Act-Geo, gives a press conference on his firm’s analysis that a gas and oil field may lie beneath the sea floor off of the coast of Pohang on the country’s eastern shoreline on June 7, 2024. (Yonhap)

“The basin is highly prospective,” said Vitor Abreu, consultant and owner of US geoscience research company Act-Geo, in a press conference on June 7. “The only way to test that now is drilling.”

During the press conference, Abreu explained how and why his company had concluded that there is a good chance that a large deposit of gas and oil — potentially as large as 14 billion barrels — lies under Yeongil Bay, off the coast of Pohang, in Korea’s North Gyeongsang Province. 

The press conference was held to allay skepticism about a government announcement about the potential deposits on June 3. 

Abreu acknowledged that there is a great deal of uncertainty about the factors essential for the commercial development of a hydrocarbon deposit, such as profitability, not to mention the actual presence of petroleum or gas. But his view is that such questions can only be answered by drilling. 

The reason Abreu thinks there are likely undersea oil or gas deposits off Korea’s eastern coast is because of the presence of four “key elements.” 

Abreu noted the presence of high-quality source rock, reservoir rock, cap rock and trap, which are required for the formation of hydrocarbon systems, in the vicinity of boreholes at three mining concessions (8, 6-1 North, and 6-1 East Central). He added that his company had calculated seven likely structures based on those factors. 

In short, the Act-Geo owner said the area has both the geological structure and characteristics consistent with oil and gas deposits. Abreu said that exploratory information acquired by Woodside Energy and separately by the Korea National Oil Corporation would also be used in this process. 

Just because the geological structure indicates the potential for gas and oil doesn’t mean oil and gas are guaranteed. When questioned about his forecast of a 20% success rate, Abreu acknowledged that Korea would have to drill to find out.  

“There’s an 80 percent chance they do not work,” he added.  

Throughout the press conference, Abreu reiterated that his company’s analyses did not confirm the presence of profitable hydrocarbons, which presented the project’s biggest risk. Seismic and geophysical surveys led Act-Geo to estimate that anywhere between 3.5 billion and 14 billion barrels could be present. The massive gap between these two numbers is an indication of the level of uncertainty. While he forecasted a 20% chance of success, Abreu assured us that’s a high number in this industry. The waters off Guyana, which have yielded the largest oil and gas fields within the past 20 to 25 years, were forecasted to have a 16% success rate in the beginning.  

Abreu also emphasized the importance of ranking the seven prospective blocks according to their commercial viability, adding that we need to choose the blocks deemed to be the most likely for success by both geologists and earth scientists. In short, the prospective blocks need to be further analyzed to determine which ones are most likely to yield oil and gas. Only then can a potential drilling site be determined. Scouting for drilling sites is expected to begin at the end of this year.  

Abreu also addressed the controversy surrounding his business, acknowledging that Act-Geo's address is registered to his home. “The only thing that we need to do our job are computers, software and cameras,” he said, noting that his team operates all over the world, from New Zealand to Brazil and Switzerland. 

Abreu explained that smaller firms provide analytics for projects directed by major corporations, and that it was a standard practice for firms like his. 

On the same day, the Korea National Oil Corp. (KNOC) announced that it had allowed several companies to bid for the project before commissioning Act-Geo to complete the analysis.  

Regarding Woodside Energy’s withdrawal from the project, KNOC merely reiterated its previous stance that Woodside merged with BHP before it could analyze prospective blocks, and pulled out after the merger.  

During a phone call with the Hankyoreh, a professor who specializes in exploratory geophysics at a major university in Seoul said, “I didn’t learn anything I hadn’t known before. There wasn’t anything that differed from standard exploratory processes for scouting oil sites, so, unlike the majority of the press, I wasn’t too skeptical.” 

“However, there would have been no problem if the president of KNOC had made the announcement. The president making the announcement is what has gotten people riled up.”  

By Choi Woo-ri, staff reporter 

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