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Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands while holding copies of their newly signed pact establishing a comprehensive strategic partnership between their two nations following their summit in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. (TASS/Yonhap)

Calls for South Korea to arm itself with nuclear weapons have been erupting again from conservatives and others in the country in the wake of an agreement signed last week by North Korea and Russia effectively restoring an alliance between them.

Candidates running for chief leader of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) argued for South Korea to take up nuclear armament in a debate held on Tuesday, which marked the 74th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War.

“The time has come for us to arm ourselves with nuclear weapons too,” said lawmaker Na Kyung-won while attending a seminar held that day by the conservative group Committee to Prepare for a New Future.

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon said, “As I witnessed the fifth round of trash balloons arriving today, I could not help thinking that we should also develop nuclear capabilities.”

In a Facebook post on Wednesday, Na declared that if elected PPP leader, she would adopt nuclear armament for Korea as a party platform.

Contributing to these arguments was a report published on Friday by the Institute for National Security Strategy, which is affiliated with the National Intelligence Service.

Based on its analysis of the significance of the North Korea-Russia agreement, the report argued for a “government-level examination and strategic public discussion of various alternatives, including [South Korea’s] independent nuclear armament or establishment of potential nuclear capabilities.” This argument helped reignite the discussion on nuclear armament as it was played up in the Chosun Ilbo and other conservative news outlets.

President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea (left) and US President Joe Biden stand together on stage at a welcome event held at the White House in April 2023, during a state visit to the US by Yoon. (Yoon Woon-sik/Hankyoreh)

The question is whether South Korea independently arming itself with nukes is realistically an option.

“If South Korea were to abandon the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in order to arm itself with nuclear weapons, it would be subject to economic sanctions from the UN Security Council, which would be difficult for it to cope with because of its dependence on trade,” predicted Cho Seong-ryoul, a visiting professor of military history at Kyungnam University and former South Korean consul general in Osaka.

“Not only that, but South Korea depends on nuclear power for 29% of its electricity generation, and it would find itself in a very difficult situation if nuclear fuel (MOX) supplies were cut off by the Nuclear Suppliers Group,” he suggested.

Another factor in the nuclear armament discussion is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House after November’s election.

Various members of Trump’s camp have made statements suggesting they would condone South Korea’s nuclear armament, as has Elbridge Colby, the former US deputy assistant secretary of defense, who has been mentioned as a possible candidate for national security adviser if a second Trump term becomes a reality. Proponents of armament have cited these statements as a strong basis for the idea.

But many experts said the same figures are unlikely to actually accept South Korea going nuclear if Trump does return to office.

“The people competing within Trump’s camp right now are paying lip service with matters of interest to South Koreans, but there’s almost no chance they will tolerate South Korea’s nuclear armament if they do actually go to work for the administration,” said Professor Emeritus Jun Bong-geun of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

“[Proponents] need to confront the reality that the principle of nuclear non-proliferation is still very powerful within the mainstream of US foreign affairs and national security,” he urged.

Due to the practical difficulties, calls for establishing “potential nuclear capabilities” along the same lines as Japan have been gaining traction.

On Tuesday, former PPP interim leader Han Dong-hoon made remarks stressing the “need for stronger security using nuclear firepower,” but he also suggested “proceeding to the point of gaining potential nuclear armament capabilities” in consideration of issues such as the possibility of sanctions for abandoning the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Japan’s current nuclear agreement with the US permits it to reprocess spent nuclear fuel, while limiting enrichment to less than 20%. This approach is to be used to produce nuclear weapons in a short period of time in the event of an emergency.

Japan’s Rokkasho nuclear reprocessing plant. (still from NHK)

For South Korea to acquire the same capabilities, it would need to revise its own nuclear agreement with the US. At the time of a previous revision in 2015, the US denied repeated requests by the Park Geun-hye administration to permit reprocessing technology.

That being the case, some have questioned why there are renewed calls for South Korea to go nuclear, when it’ll prove difficult not only for Seoul to acquire the necessary technology but to maintain a nuclear arsenal. Some analysts say it’s a political tactic to rally conservatives in the face of recent diplomatic failures. 

“South Korea-Russia relations started rapidly deteriorating after President Yoon Suk-yeol’s visit to Ukraine last year, yet the administration kept insisting that relations were being well-maintained, although they were clearly neglected,” said Cho, the military studies professor.

“The new treaty between North Korea and Russia caught the South Korean conservatives off guard, and now they’re scrambling to change the subject to nuclear armament,” he went on.

Experts say that certain circumstances, including a possible US troop withdrawal from Korea, will make it difficult to avoid a discussion of the option of nuclear armament. Before we reach that point, South Korean politicians need to reach a consensus based on sincere, serious discussion on national security, they say. 

“If South Korea wants to develop potential nuclear capabilities, both sides of the political aisle will need to sincerely work toward a consensus on national security matters and develop a clear bipartisan strategy, coupled with a diplomacy of discretion,” said Jun.

“If our politicians keep running their mouths as they are now, then it will be difficult to actually get anything done, and further disadvantage us.”

By Park Min-hee, senior staff writer

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