hankyoreh

“The game is already over,” Lee’s camp says.

“The drama of reversal is beginning,” Park’s camp says.

With the main opposition Grand National Party scheduled to hold an Aug. 19 primary for the nomination of its presidential candidate, the two front-runners, former Seoul mayor Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, daughter of former president Park Chung-hee, are both making very different predictions for the primary. Supporters for Lee say that the former Seoul mayor maintains a comfortable lead over Park, while those for Park say she will win the primary, even with a slim margin.

The confidence of Lee’s camp is based on the results of various opinion polls. In a press release on Aug. 10, Lee said he won 49 percent support, putting Park in second place with 34.1 percent, citing a recent poll on the four main GNP presidential contenders that was conducted by TV network SBS and poll agency TNS.

Lee’s campaign committee also argued that, out of 246 regional chiefs at GNP branches nationwide, 142 to 146 would vote for Lee.

Park Sung-min, a political consultant, said, “Lee is ahead in opinion polls of both the general public and senior GNP members. The GNP’s primary rules were originally based on the perception that Lee was ahead in the public opinion polls, while Park gained ground among GNP members. But now, the polls show that Lee has strong support from both the general public and GNP members.”

Some analysts suggest that the past six months of claims by Park’s campaign staff that Lee carried out various financial misdeeds, as a way to undermine Lee’s potential nomination, are now heading to a losing end.

Jeong Doo-eon, head of the planning division for Lee’s campaign, said, “Let’s look back on past elections. Candidates who attacked the front-runner always failed to win the election because the attack meant the failure of the candidates themselves.”

Park Hyung-joon, a spokesman for Lee’s campaign, said, “These days, people tend to make practical choices.”

Park Geun-hye, who is Lee’s chief rival for the GNP nomination, and her campaign committee are putting pressure on Lee by reminding people of the failure of its former presidential candidate, Lee Hoi-chang. Park’s camp has delivered the constant message that she is a “flawless candidate.” Even if Lee wins the nomination, Park’s camp says, it would impossible for Lee to win the Dec. 19 presidential election because of a number of allegations linked to financial scams, speculative real estate investment and other political scandals.

Park may gain the upper hand because some primary rules are favorable to her. Kim Heon-tae, head of the Korea Society Opinion Research Center, said, “There are three unofficial laws in primary elections: turnout is higher in local regions than Seoul and its neighboring areas, in Gyeongsang provinces(Yongnam) than Cheolla provinces(Honam) and among older voters than younger ones.” Kim said that it was possible for Park to win the nomination because of such favorable conditions.

Park’s camp also said that her support has been steadily rising, despite a 30-percentage-point gap with Lee in terms of approval ratings earlier this year. Lee Jeong-hyun, a spokesman for Park’s camp, said, “Some opinion polls show the gap narrowed to 15 percentage points throughout the public debates and narrowed to 7 percentage points as people assessed the candidates’ qualifications.” The spokesman also said, “The gap is now narrowing to 2 to 3 percentage points as Park’s campaign is holding in local regions. If the trend continues, we will have the advantage.”

With the GNP primary less than 10 days away, Lee’s camp worries that Lee may run into trouble because of mistakes he has made in his public remarks. So far this year, Lee’s support has been slipping slightly, which some analysts say suggests that some voters may be put off by mistakes Lee made in his remarks on the 1980 pro-democracy uprising in Gwangju and other social affairs. Lee’s advisers are now asking him not to make any mistakes in televised debates and other public speeches.

Some in Lee’s camp also worry about a potential “tear campaign” by Park. The final public debate before the GNP primary will be held on Aug. 14, a day before the memorial for the death of Yook Young-soo, the wife of former president Park and the mother of the junior Park.

Meanwhile, other variables remain, such as South Korean hostage crisis in Afghanistan and claims that the elections have been manipulated by money from Park’s camp?.

Soongsil University professor Kang Won-taek said, “Whenever allegations involving Lee are made public, the impact is diluted because of bigger news such as the hostage crisis in Afghanistan and a second inter-Korean summit.”

“It remains to be seen which variables will ultimately shake up the election landscape,” Kang added.