hankyoreh

The administration of President Lee Myung-bak’s response to North Korea’s announcement of an intended satellite launch is to reveal that it is considering full participation in the United States-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI).

“A North Korean missile firing signals a time for us to consider the issue of participation in PSI,” said Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan just days ago.

“With roughly eighty nations around the world participating in an international agreement to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, it was getting hard to explain to the international community why we, a country that should be most concerned about the issue, was not participating,” said another high-ranking administration official under the condition of anonymity. “The argument that a missile firing should be reason for full participation is gaining strength within the administration.”

Given these statements, the Lee administration has all but issued a formal declaration that it is going to join as a full participant in PSI the moment North Korea launches its satellite.

South Korea has so far been only an “observer” to PSI, and in five out of eight areas only out of consideration for relations with the US, China, and North Korea, excluding the three areas that are official participation in training maneuvers, materiel support for interdiction exercises within jurisdictions, and material support for interdiction outside jurisdiction.

By the looks of it, the Lee administration pulled full participation in PSI out of its bag of tricks to demonstrate that it is not going to let North Korea’s “bad behavior” go without a response. However, it is quite probable the move will only exacerbate problems and deliver no benefits. Administration officials say that since actions can be taken only within one’s territorial waters, full participation would still not create any problems as long as the North moves in international waters. However, officials are in no position to deny that there would be a greater risk of an armed clash, and North Korea is already saying PSI is “a fuse that could bring flame clouds of war over the Korean peninsula.”

The Obama Administration is not even done reviewing U.S. policy towards Pyongyang, let alone the leadership of PSI. But as seen in the changes in policy towards Iran, it is quite likely policy towards North Korea may turn towards dialogue, regardless of whether the North fires a missile. If the Lee administration gets ahead of itself it could exacerbate the “isolation of South Korea” and the North’s approach of “closing up to the South and opening up to the Americans” (tong mi bong nam). The fact that China, which holds the chairmanship of the six party talks, is also very negative about PSI is also going to be a burden for the Lee administration as it tries to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue through the six party process.

In conclusion, the Lee administration should stop thinking about full participation in PSI since the influence will be negative and the benefits are uncertain.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]