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Moon Chung-in, South Korea's special presidential advisor for unification, foreign affairs and national security, speaks at a seminar on North Korea hosted by the Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC, on Jan. 6. (Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent)

Moon Chung-in, South Korea's special presidential advisor for unification, foreign affairs and national security, has predicted that if North Korea launches an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or a satellite sometime in February, the Trump administration will have no choice to give a “strong response” despite its current focus on Iran.

Speaking at a seminar on North Korea-US relations hosted by the think tank Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC, on Jan. 6, Moon said, “The Trump administration will view [an ICBM launch] as a calculated move by North Korea, and as it’s come under heavy political fire from the Democratic Party, it’s possible Trump will give a strong, punitive response, even if that means taking military action on two fronts, in Iran and North Korea.”

If the US, France, and the UK agree to Russia and China’s proposal to ease sanctions on North Korea under the condition of denuclearization, it could relieve the current deadlock in North Korea-US negotiations, Moon added. “It won’t be easy,” he said, “but if the proposal contains a way to gradually lift sanctions under the condition that North Korea denuclearizes, including the shutdown of its Yongbyon facilities, the situation could be reversed.” Moon predicted that if such a compromise could be reached, the South Korean government would also support it.

“The [US’] current strategy of denuclearization first and compensation later is not working,” Moon stressed. “North Korea needs to return to the negotiating table, and the US needs to show more flexibility.”

“South Korea’s fundamental stance is to go along with the US,” Moon continued. “However, if progress continues to stall, the domestic political environment worsens, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula and throughout Northeast Asia takes a turn for the worse, even President Moon Jae-in won’t be able to continue supporting the US. He will likely adjust his position.”

Meanwhile, South Korean Ambassador to the US Lee Soo-hyuck presented his credentials to US President Donald Trump during a White House ceremony on the same day. During the ceremony’s commemorative photo shoot, Trump asked Lee about recent events concerning North Korea, including the Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee’s plenary session. In his response, Lee asked Trump to continue demonstrating leadership toward permanent inter-Korean peace, to which Trump responded that he would, according to the South Korean Embassy in Washington.

Also, Blue House National Security Office Director Chung Eui-yong, US National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien, and Shigeru Kitamura, head of Japan's Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office, are expected to convene in Washington on Jan. 8 to hold trilateral security negotiations and discuss ways to resume North Korea-US negotiations.

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

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