hankyoreh

A view of delegations from South Korea, North Korea and the US during the opening ceremony of the Pyeongchang Olympics on Feb. 9, 2018. (provided by the Blue House)

With the US officially announcing its diplomatic boycott of the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics, all eyes are watching for signs of how the South Korean government will move forward, including whether President Moon Jae-in will attend the opening ceremony in February.

With the Olympics — often seen as a symbol of peace — having fallen victim to the US-China rivalry, concerns are deepening for Seoul. Since the US announced that no diplomatic or official representation will be attending the games, it will be impossible for the four parties — the US, South Korea, China, and North Korea — to come together to declare an end to the Korean War.

A Blue House official told reporters on Monday that “the government hopes the upcoming Beijing Olympics, just like the 2018 Pyeongchang and 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will contribute to regional and world peace as well as to inter-Korean relations.” The official continued by saying that "the United States had informed us in advance [of the boycott decision] through diplomatic channels.” They declined to comment further, concluding, "There is nothing in particular to note about other countries' diplomatic decisions.”

The comments from the Blue House differ starkly from those made by the US, which based its decision to boycott the games on the grounds of “ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses.”

The Blue House seems to expect that the US government will not pressure South Korea to participate in a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics. Several Blue House officials emphasized that the US understands the situation in Korea. It’s difficult for the US to disregard South Korea’s unique position, with its close economic ties with China. Indeed, the White House and US State Department did not deviate from the principled attitude centered on “leaving it up to them to decide" or “each sovereign country’s right to make its own decisions."

For now, South Korean government officials have remained quiet about whether a government delegation will attend the opening and closing ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics. There is a relatively high possibility that President Moon Jae-in will not attend himself, but that a government delegation will attend instead.

In reality, there are dwindling rationales for Moon to attend the Olympics in person. With the US boycotting, President Joe Biden will not be in attendance, effectively extinguishing the possibility of the Olympics acting as a springboard for a declaration officially ending the Korean War being signed by stakeholder nations — namely, South Korea, North Korea, the US, and China.

It’s also unlikely that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un — who has closed his country’s borders with China for 23 months now — will suddenly decide to make the trip to Beijing. With the possibility of the Beijing Olympics becoming a venue to move forward the Korean Peninsula peace process practically lost, there isn’t much reason for Moon to attend the games in person.

During the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics, China sent a standing member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party as a special representative of Xi Jinping to attend in his place, meaning the South Korean president would theoretically not be obliged to attend himself.

The government has reportedly already put forth the Minister of Culture, Sports and Tourism as an attendee. However, since attendance by a country's sports minister is generally seen as common practice, it's difficult to conclude whether this will be the final official decision by the South Korean government or if the list of attendees will be changed.

With nearly two months left before the Beijing Olympics, the government seems to be biding its time and continuing to monitor developments further, thus delaying the announcement of its final decision regarding the Olympics. When the Blue House reported the results of the Tianjin meeting between Suh Hoon, the director of South Korea's National Security Office, and Yang Jiechi, the Chinese Politburo's member in charge of foreign affairs on Friday, they said the two “agreed to promote necessary communication between President Xi Jinping and President Moon Jae-in,” but made no mention of anything related to the Beijing Olympics.

The bigger problem, however, is expected to be centered on the South Korean government's response to the US-China rivalry, which is sure to become more acute following this latest development. South Korea’s room for maneuvering between the US and China is ever-shrinking, with the reshuffling of supply chains and the Korean Peninsula peace process. This has been the case ever since South Korea began promoting an end-of-war declaration, which will require the participation of the South, the North, the US and China.

The South Korean government was holding out hope for some kind of progress on the Korean peace process at the Beijing Olympics, but the possibilities of this succeeding now are quite low.

The South Korea's government's response to the US’ highlighting of human rights abuses in Xinjiang is also receiving increased attention. The government is repeating its basic position that “the government is also watching the human rights issue in Xinjiang and is conducting diplomatic communications.”

In addition, the prospect that the level of public restraint by allies could be higher in the wake of the Summit for Democracy, scheduled to be held by the US on Thursday and Friday, is expected to add another item to South Korea's diplomatic agenda.

New Zealand said it would join the diplomatic boycott on Tuesday, while reports say the UK, Canada, Australia, and Japan may also follow suit.

By Lee Wan and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporters

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]