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Reporters covering the Ministry of National Defense observe the test of a Patriot missile radar at an airbase in the Seoul area

Since the South Korean and US governments announced plans to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system with US Forces Korea in North Gyeongsang Province’s Seongju County, both supporters and opponents have used the US THAAD battery on the Pacific island of Guam and the AN/TYP-2 X-band radar in Japan’s Aomori Prefecture and at the US military’s Kyogamisaki Sub-Base in Kyotango as comparisons in judging the decision’s suitability. The reason is that the Guam battery is the only one outside the US mainland, while the radar at the two Japanese sites is similar to the kind that will be deployed in Seongju to serve as the core of the THAAD system. Proponents of the THAAD deployment have used the radar sites and operational conditions in Guam and Japan in an effort to play up the safety of the Seongju system, while opponents have cited reports from villages near the Japanese radar sites to stress the hazards from electromagnetic waves and noise.

But experts are arguing that qualitative differences in conditions at Seongju and the Guam and Japan sites make any direct comparison impossible. Specifically, the radar in Guam and Japan is positioned on the open coast facing toward the sea, while Seongju is inland. On Guam, a THAAD battery has been in operation since Apr. 2013. Its radar is positioned on open land adjoining the sea. In Japan, systems with only X-band radar and no interception missiles has been in operation in Aomori Prefecture and at Kyogamisaki since June 2006 and Dec. 2014, respectively. In both cases, the systems face the sea with no villages or homes in front. The ongoing debate over potential health hazards has led the Japanese Defense Ministry to repeatedly stress the absence of any obstructions between the radar and the sea.

In contrast, Seongju is located inland and had a population of 46,509 as of late 2014. The explanations from the Japanese Defense Ministry undercut the South Korean Ministry of National Defense’s claim that the battery would be safe because it is to be “located on a mountain peak at an altitude of 400 meters.”

A more serious issue concerns the strategic implications of the THAAD deployment in Seongju. Guam is located at a distance of 3,500 to 4,000 km from North Korea and China - both of which lie outside the maximum detection range of THAAD radar. The radar in Japan is only capable of detection as far as the Shandong Peninsula in China. A THAAD radar deployment in Seongju would change the situation completely: Yan’an in China’s Shaanxi Province would fall within its maximum detection range.

“We have to expect that the radar to be deployed in Seongju will be linked to the THAAD radar at the two sites in Japan,” said Yonsei University professor Choi Jong-kun.

“This means the US missile defense system will be increased in terms of its reach, density, and capabilities,” Choi added.

The new system would mean a northwestern expansion for the current US-Japan defense system - a fact that explains why the Japanese government and media have consistently welcomed news of the Seongju deployment amid the Chinese and Russian government’s vehement objections.

Japan first declared its participation in US missile defense in Dec. 2013. The Pentagon‘s Missile Defense Agency has also identified THAAD as a key element in missile defense. Both facts explain why Seoul’s position that the THAAD deployment would not mean participating in US missile defense or target any third country are failing to gain credence in and outside South Korea.

By Lee Je-hun, staff reporter

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