hankyoreh

May 21.

Tensions are rising on the Korean Peninsula, with North Korea and South Korea trading tough words since the announcement by South Korea of investigation results that blame a North Korean torpedo attack for the sinking of the Cheonan. The Hankyoreh asked domestic and foreign experts to forecast the future situation on the Korean Peninsula, including inter-Korean relations, and to give advice on a proper response from the authorities in both North Korea and South Korea.



The investigation results overturned a statement early on by Defense Minister Kim Tae-young, who had said concretely that it was hard to see the sinking as a North Korean act. I wonder if the current Lee Myung-bak administration’s capacity to collect information and judge the situation is this poor.



Because the administration has concluded that the sinking was a North Korean act, the administration itself has eliminated almost any room to resolve inter-Korean relations. The only thing is that after some time has passed, it is highly possible that under Chinese initiative, the U.S. and China will begin creating a situation to restart the six-party talks. Inter-Korean relations would keep the status quo or improve due to external factors, although it is not desirable situation.

Even if just to prepare for this situation, in inter-Korean relations, we must be careful against unilaterally taking hardline measures against North Korea. Of the measures currently being discussed, there are some that would bring more disadvantages upon us, and some that at the slightest mistake could raise the level of tension on the Korean Peninsula and have a negative impact on the credit rating of our economy. We need a strategic approach that understands the Cheonan and six-party talks in the big picture and considers up to the time when inter-Korean relations can be restored and maintained.

North Korea is not acknowledging that it sank the Cheonan, but nonetheless, South Korean officials have announced that the ship was sunk in a North Korean torpedo attack and 46 South Korean military personnel have died. If North Korea has the will to announce Thursday that it would send its own inspection team to South Korea, North Korea must show the efforts and the attitude to prove its innocence of involvement to a degree the international community can acknowledge through all channels and dialogue, including the UN Command Military Armistice Commission. If not, North Korea will grow even more isolated from the international community and the normalization of North Korea-U.S. relations and the lifting of sanctions, as pursued by North Korea, would grow more difficult.

The Lee Myung-bak government is thoroughly on the offensive, and inter-Korean relations have worsened for about two years, but it must not give up in the remaining two and half years. President Lee must show the wisdom to balance, improve inter-Korean ties and lead North Korea to the dialogue table. In 1968, when Kim Shin-jo and 30 other North Korean commandos led their attack on Cheong Wa Dae (the presidential office in South Korea, or Blue House), former President Park Chung-hee considered directly retaliating, but he showed patience. This attitude proved a positive factor in South Korean economic development and leading North Korea back to the negotiation table.



Jin Canrong, Associate Dean, School of International Studies at Renmin University of China


The position of the Chinese government is to not take sides. Additionally, even after fairly judging the situation in accordance with right and wrong, that this incident must not escalate into a regional clash under any circumstance. One cannot resolve a tragedy through a bigger tragedy.

In the event that North Korea is responsible, as the South Korean announcement said, if it was an extreme act not by the government but by some forces within the military, what would the response be? Accordingly, China will take time and decide what its future response will be after determining if the evidence presented is certain and evaluating and analyzing the investigation result. It must also listen to what North Korea has to say and judge comprehensively.



South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, by stressing China’s role, are putting pressure on China to choose between siding with North Korea or siding with South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. China, however, will adhere to its principle that we must resolve the situation in such a manner that will not give rise to tensions, regardless of the extent of pressure applied.



In terms of pushing for sanctions in the UN Security Council, China will make a decision after both judging the facts and considering the negative side-effects. At a time when North Korea is already under UN sanctions, additional sanctions will narrow the possibility still further of restarting the six-party talks while further raising inter-Korean tensions, and make North Korea’s actions even more extreme.



According to several circumstances, it seems the sinking was a North Korean act. It is difficult to understand the intentions behind the sinking, but it should be seen as their existing policy of boosting internal solidarity and provoking the outside.


Resuming the six-party talks has become more difficult for the time being. South Korea’s security posture will stiffen, as will the South Korean-U.S. defense posture. It also seems the transfer of wartime operational command will also be rediscussed. In Japan’s case, the issue of the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma is being discussed, but it will be influenced from the perspective of Northeast Asian security.

North Korea made an offer difficult for the South Korean government to accept, namely, that it would send its own review team. It appears to be with the objective of claiming that the investigation results have not been objectively verified if the South Korean government refuses. It could also be grounds for China to refuse sanctions. I think additional UN sanctions will be difficult due to China’s opposition. I wonder if, ultimately, the result will be a diplomatic response will be at the level of a chairman’s statement.


As South Korea, China and Japan will closely cooperate, resolving the tensions will ultimately be up to North Korea. Kim Jong-il’s visit to China was focused on breaking through its economic difficulties. If it thinks this important, I think North Korea will ultimately work to get the six-party talks restarted.

South Korea is moving towards UN Security Council sanctions. China is the variable. It is hard to agree with the forecast that China will ultimately agree with a plan to criticize North Korea and place additional sanctions on it. Moreover, even if additional UN Security Council sanctions are decided, they will not have a major effect on applying substantive pressure. As long as China does not remove the plug of support, nothing will become more difficult.



China will move towards moving the six-party talks through mediation towards diplomacy. The U.S. is also supporting South Korea’s hardline diplomacy now, but I do not think the Obama administration will continue with a thoroughly hardline position only.



At the current juncture, it is not easy for the South Korean government to continue aid to North Korea. I am concerned, however, that suspending aid to North Korea will not only just make life difficult for North Korean citizens, but also raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Accordingly, the push for the six-party talks must continue. It will take at least six-months or more to sit again at the dialogue table. Looking at the results of the investigation, it is not easy to dispute the physical and circumstantial evidence that the Cheonan was sank by a North Korean torpedo attack. Nevertheless, if the government does not want something like the Cheonan to occur again, it is important that they create that environment by approaching the issue carefully.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]