hankyoreh

President Park Geun-hye and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon sign a commemorative photo of leaders at the G-20 Summit in Istanbul

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is reportedly scheduled to visit North Korea in the near future.

Ban’s visit would be the third to the country by a UN Secretary-General, after Kurt Waldheim in 1979 and Boutros Boutros-Ghali in 1993.

“Secretary-General Ban definitely is visiting North Korea,” a source familiar with the North Korea situation told the Hankyoreh on Nov. 15.

According to reports, Ban has already decided on a plan for his visit to Pyongyang. The office of the Secretary-General’s spokesperson responded to speculation about the visit with a statement that neither acknowledged nor denied the plans.

“The Secretary-General has always said that he is ready to play any role in order to help enhance dialogue, stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula,” the statement read.

It went on to say that no more details could be given at the present time.

Ban‘s visit would come six months after previous plans for a visit to the Kaesong Industrial Complex in May fell through. Ban, who has roughly a year remaining in his term, has repeatedly discussed wanting to play a meaningful role in improving inter-Korean relations before his term ends. No specifics were available on how Ban, who does not have his own aircraft, would be arriving in North Korea.

Analysts read Ban’s visit as a result of his interests coinciding with those of Pyongyang. But the likelihood of it producing serious results appears slim with the international community in turmoil over the recent terrorist attacks in Paris and Pyongyang‘s relations with Seoul and Washington seeing little progress.

North Korea’s decision to agree to Ban‘s visit appears to be a continuation of its consistent attempts to keep foreign relations on a more stable footing since a senior-level inter-Korean meeting in late August. While it is still too early to say Pyongyang has started pursuing improved relations aggressively, it has at least acknowledged the need to “keep the situation stable.”

The clearest illustration of that may be a speech delivered before the UN General Assembly on Oct. 1 by North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su-yong.

“If the US agrees to replace the armistice agreement with a peace agreement, the Republic [North Korea] is willing to engage in constructive dialogue to prevent war or conflict on the Korean Peninsula,” Ri said at the time.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also remarked on the need for a “peaceful and stable external environment to develop the economy and improve citizen lives” while speaking to Chinese Community Party Politburo Standing Committee member Liu Yunshan during his North Korea visit earlier this month for a Workers’ Party seventieth anniversary event.

Perhaps the biggest factor is Pyongyang’s conclusion that sudden tensions overseas would be unwelcome ahead of the seventh Workers’ Party Congress next May. With Kim expected to declare a “new vision” at the Congress - the first in 36 years - Pyongyang recognizes a need to minimize the amount of energy it spends on outside conflicts. The acceptance of Ban‘s visit could prove a fairly useful asset from North Korea’s standpoint.

Ban, for his part, senses his own need to produce results in the remaining year of his term. Many observers have noted the absence of noteworthy results from him since becoming UN Secretary-General. With Ban’s status as the first Secretary-General from a divided country, a North Korea visit could be one way of showing his contributions to reducing tensions on the peninsula.

Indeed, Ban has repeatedly mentioned the possibility of visiting North Korea “at a suitable time” since taking office in 2007. Last May, a planned visit to the Kaesong Industrial Complex fell through at the last minute.

If Ban does visit Pyongyang, he appears likely to meet with Kim, since North Korea would find itself facing criticisms for breaching diplomatic protocol if Kim were not to meet with the UN chief. As Ban would also face questions over the whole point of his visit, it is possible that he demanded a guarantee of a meeting with Kim.

But the likelihood of Ban’s visit producing any dramatic breakthroughs in Pyongyang’s relations with either Washington or Seoul appears very slim, experts say. The US government has dismissed North Korea’s proposals to replace the armistice system with a peace treaty as unthinkable without progress on denuclearization. The chances of North Korea using Ban to declare its own denuclearization are essentially nil, nor is there much possibility at the moment of the US proposing unconditional talks on a peace agreement. Under the circumstances, Ban has little room to mediate.

Inter-Korean relations have also been stagnant since reunions among divided family members last month. The two sides agreed to hold intergovernmental talks as soon as possible during a meeting of senior authorities at Panmunjeom on Aug. 25, but no follow-up dialogue has taken place. This appears likely to leave Ban with little benefit he can provide to South or North.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]